Weather forecasts are significantly less accurate in poorer countries, analysis finds

Billy Odell Tucker-Robinson Founder & Host — Banking With Billy Network • Intelligence Network • Data Science • AI Research • World News
Published: 2026-09-15T22:25:33.261Z • Permanent link

Accurate weather forecasts are crucial for a wide range of applications, from agriculture to energy and emergency management. Yet, a recent study has revealed that these forecasts are significantly less accurate in poorer countries, highlighting the disparity in weather forecasting capabilities across the globe. The study, conducted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the University of Oxford, analyzed data from over 100 countries and found that the accuracy of weather forecasts decreased substantially in countries with lower economic development.

One of the key drivers of this disparity is the availability of data. Many poorer countries lack the infrastructure and resources to collect and transmit weather data, making it difficult to generate accurate forecasts. For instance, the study found that countries such as Nepal and Afghanistan had some of the lowest accuracy rates, with forecasts being only 40% accurate on average. In contrast, countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom had accuracy rates of over 90%.

The impact of inaccurate weather forecasts can be felt across various sectors. For example, farmers in poorer countries may not be able to anticipate weather patterns, leading to reduced crop yields and economic losses. Similarly, energy companies may struggle to manage demand, leading to power outages and economic disruption. In addition, public authorities may struggle to prepare for extreme weather events, leading to increased risk of loss of life and property damage.

Inaccurate weather forecasts have significant real-world implications for companies that rely on weather data, such as agricultural and energy companies. For instance, a study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that a 1% increase in temperature can lead to a 1.5% decrease in crop yields. This can have significant economic implications for companies that rely on weather data, such as weather insurance companies and agricultural input suppliers.

Furthermore, inaccurate weather forecasts can also have significant implications for research communities. For example, a study by the University of California, Berkeley found that inaccurate weather forecasts can lead to incorrect conclusions in climate modeling, which can have significant implications for policymakers and researchers. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has estimated that accurate weather forecasting could prevent up to 10% of global economic losses due to extreme weather events.

The disparity in weather forecasting capabilities across countries is part of a larger pattern of disparities in global infrastructure and resource allocation. For instance, the lack of investment in weather infrastructure in poorer countries is often linked to broader issues of poverty and inequality. Additionally, the impact of inaccurate weather forecasts is often exacerbated by competing approaches to weather forecasting, such as the use of traditional forecasting methods versus more advanced numerical weather prediction models.