Nigeria faces world s highest projected heat death toll from super El Niño

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Published: 2026-09-25T12:25:14.643Z • Permanent link

Nigeria is bracing for the world's highest projected heat death toll from a super El Niño, a phenomenon that could leave millions vulnerable to extreme temperatures. Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab, led by Dr. Mark Bowen, combined temperature forecasts with research on how heat affects death rates in more than 24,000 regions worldwide. Their findings paint a dire picture, warning of unprecedented mortality rates in Africa's most populous country.

The super El Niño event is expected to bring scorching temperatures to West Africa, including Nigeria, between May and October 2024. The country's National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has already activated its emergency response protocol, deploying personnel and equipment to affected areas. Dr. Bowen's team used satellite data and climate models to predict the severity of the heatwave, which could lead to an estimated 1 million excess deaths in Nigeria alone. The country's fragile healthcare system and lack of access to cooling infrastructure will exacerbate the crisis.

Experts warn that the impact of the super El Niño will be felt across the continent, with potential consequences for global food and water security. The World Food Programme (WFP) has already alerted its staff to the risk of food shortages and price increases, while the United Nations' Humanitarian Coordinator for Nigeria has urged donors to prepare for an emergency response.

The impending heatwave poses significant risks to Nigeria's infrastructure, including its power grid, water supply, and transportation networks. The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has warned of potential power outages and disruptions to critical services, while the Federal Ministry of Water Resources has mobilized emergency response teams to mitigate the impact of water shortages. The country's economy, which is heavily reliant on oil exports, may also be severely impacted by the heatwave, with potential losses running into billions of dollars.

The super El Niño has far-reaching implications for the global research community, which will need to rapidly adapt its understanding of the phenomenon to mitigate its impacts. The University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab has already begun sharing its research findings with policymakers and stakeholders, while the International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University is coordinating a global response to the crisis. The event also highlights the need for greater investment in climate resilience and adaptation measures, particularly in vulnerable regions.

The super El Niño is the latest manifestation of a broader pattern of climate extremes, which have been intensifying in recent years. The 2019-2020 El Niño event, which was the strongest on record, left millions of people homeless and caused widespread devastation in the Pacific. The 2020-2021 La Niña event, meanwhile, brought drought and famine to parts of Africa and Asia. These events underscore the need for a coordinated global response to the crisis, with policymakers, researchers, and practitioners working together to build resilience and adapt to the changing climate.