How much oil is going through Hormuz? How data doesn’t match US claims

Billy Odell Tucker-Robinson Founder & Host — Banking With Billy Network • Intelligence Network • Data Science • AI Research • World News
Published: 2026-09-03T16:16:03.583Z • Permanent link

Recent reports from the United States have claimed that approximately 3.6 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d) are transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. However, data from various sources suggests that this figure may be inaccurate. According to a report by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Strait of Hormuz's average daily oil transit volume was around 2.8 mb/d in 2020, which is significantly lower than the US claim.

The discrepancy may be attributed to the use of different methodologies and data sources by the US and the IMO. The US relies on data from various government agencies, including the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), while the IMO uses data from a range of sources, including ship traffic reports and satellite imagery. Additionally, the US claim may be influenced by the presence of military vessels in the area, which can artificially inflate the volume of oil transiting through the strait.

The discrepancy has significant implications for the global oil market, particularly for countries that rely heavily on oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, for example, is the world's largest oil exporter, with a significant portion of its crude oil passing through the strait. Any significant increase in oil production or exports through the strait could have a major impact on global oil prices and market dynamics.

The accuracy of oil transit data has significant implications for the global oil market and the companies that operate in it. Research communities and analysts rely on accurate data to inform their forecasts and predictions, which can have significant consequences for investment decisions and market dynamics. The US claim of 3.6 mb/d through the Strait of Hormuz has already had a significant impact on the market, with oil prices increasing in response to concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies.

Companies such as ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell, which have significant operations in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, are likely to be impacted by any discrepancies in oil transit data. The accuracy of data is also critical for policymakers, who rely on accurate information to inform their decisions on energy policy and security. The lack of transparency and consistency in oil transit data highlights the need for greater cooperation and standardization among governments and industry stakeholders.

The discrepancy in oil transit data through the Strait of Hormuz is part of a larger pattern of inconsistencies and inaccuracies in global energy data. In 2020, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the global oil supply was significantly higher than the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate. This discrepancy highlights the challenges of collecting and reporting accurate data on global energy markets, particularly in regions with complex and dynamic energy systems.