Goldman Sachs flips on oil

Billy Odell Tucker-Robinson Founder & Host — Banking With Billy Network • Intelligence Network • Data Science • AI Research • World News
Published: 2026-09-08T09:53:15.244Z • Permanent link

Goldman Sachs analysts have undergone a dramatic shift in their oil-price forecasts over the past three months. In March, they lowered their 2023 oil-price forecast from $110 to $105 per barrel, citing concerns over a slowdown in global demand. However, by June, their team of experts had revised their outlook to a new high of $120 per barrel, citing an unexpected surge in supply disruptions and improving demand in key markets. This sudden reversal has left many in the industry scratching their heads, wondering what triggered such a drastic change in their forecasts.

According to sources within the bank, the turning point came in May when Goldman Sachs' energy team, led by chief commodity analyst Jeff Currie, began to focus more intently on the potential impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine on global oil markets. Currie, a prominent voice in the energy sector, had been warning of a sharp increase in oil prices for months, and his team's revised forecast reflected this new assessment. Additionally, Goldman Sachs' analysts have also been paying close attention to developments in the Middle East, where several countries have implemented new oil production cuts in an effort to stabilize global prices.

Meanwhile, rival firms such as Morgan Stanley and UBS have also revised their oil-price forecasts, although their changes were not as dramatic as Goldman Sachs'. The revisions have sparked a heated debate among energy analysts and traders, with some arguing that the market is finally starting to price in the full implications of the war in Ukraine and others warning that the situation remains volatile. Goldman Sachs' analysts, however, remain confident that their revised forecast is more accurate, citing a combination of supply disruptions and improving demand in key markets.

The shift in Goldman Sachs' oil-price forecast has significant implications for the data sources that underpin the energy sector. Companies such as Bloomberg and Reuters, which provide real-time data on oil prices and production levels, will need to reassess their forecasting models to ensure they remain accurate in the face of such rapid changes. Additionally, research communities and policymakers will need to take into account the revised forecast when making decisions about energy policy and investment strategies.

For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has already begun to incorporate the revised forecast into its own analysis of global energy markets, warning that the increased price volatility poses a significant risk to energy security and economic stability. Similarly, companies such as Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil, which are major players in the global oil market, will need to adjust their production levels and investment strategies in response to the revised forecast.

The shift in Goldman Sachs' oil-price forecast is part of a larger pattern of volatility in the energy sector, which has been driven by a combination of factors including supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and improving demand in key markets. This volatility has been a hallmark of the energy sector for several years, and it is likely to continue to shape energy markets and policy decisions in the coming months.