Germany braces for key state elections where far right party AfD seeks another breakthrough

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Published: 2026-09-19T17:16:13.506Z • Permanent link

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is facing a make-or-break moment as his government prepares for two pivotal state elections on Sunday, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party set to contest both Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The AfD, led by its charismatic leader Alexander Gauland, has been gaining momentum in recent months, and its success in these elections could have far-reaching implications for the country's political landscape. According to a recent poll, the AfD is poised to win at least 20% of the vote in both Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a significant increase from its 2019 showing. German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has vowed to take a tough stance on the AfD, but many are warning that the party's rising star power could be a sign of a broader shift in German politics.

The AfD's surge in popularity has been fueled by a combination of factors, including growing discontent with the current government and a sense of disillusionment with the EU. The party's platform, which emphasizes a strong national identity and a more isolationist approach to EU policy, has resonated with many voters who feel that the country is being ignored by the EU. Meanwhile, the AfD's leader, Alexander Gauland, has been using his social media presence to mobilize support and build a sense of community among AfD supporters. Gauland's popularity has been boosted by his willingness to challenge the status quo and take on the establishment, and he has become a favorite among some German voters who feel that he is speaking truth to power.

The elections are set to take place on Sunday, with voters in both Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania heading to the polls to cast their ballots. The AfD is expected to win a significant share of the vote in both regions, but the party's success will depend on its ability to build a broad coalition of supporters and translate its popularity into seats in the state parliaments.

The implications of the AfD's success in these elections will be felt far beyond the borders of Germany. For companies that operate in the country, the AfD's rise could lead to increased uncertainty and volatility, particularly if the party's platform is seen as hostile to EU regulations and international trade agreements. This could have significant consequences for German businesses, particularly those that rely on exports or imports, and could lead to a decline in investment and economic growth. Meanwhile, research communities and academics who study German politics and policy will be watching the elections closely, as the AfD's success could provide a unique opportunity to study the impact of populism on democratic institutions.

The AfD's rise also has implications for the broader EU, which is facing growing challenges from nationalist and populist movements across the continent. If the AfD is successful in these elections, it could be seen as a model for other far-right parties, and could potentially embolden similar movements across Europe. This could have significant consequences for the EU's ability to address pressing issues such as migration and climate change, and could lead to a decline in trust and cooperation among EU member states.

The AfD's rise is part of a broader pattern of populist and nationalist movements across Europe, which have been gaining momentum in recent years. In Italy, the Five Star Movement and the League party have been gaining popularity, while in Poland and Hungary, the ruling parties have been pushing a hardline nationalist agenda. Meanwhile, in the US, the rise of Trumpism and the Republican Party's "America First" agenda has been gaining momentum, and has been mirrored by similar movements in other countries such as Australia and Brazil.