From drought to floods in North Africa

Billy Odell Tucker-Robinson Founder & Host — Banking With Billy Network • Intelligence Network • Data Science • AI Research • World News
Published: 2026-09-09T21:57:06.305Z • Permanent link

Morocco's National Hydrological Service has just released its latest data, revealing that the 2023-24 hydrological year was the driest in more than six decades. This is a stark contrast to the country's performance over the past decade, which saw six consecutive years of below-average rainfall. The implications of this shift are far-reaching, particularly in light of the upcoming super El Niño event. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a super El Niño is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the region, potentially causing widespread flooding. This phenomenon has been predicted by climate models, which suggest that the warming of the Pacific Ocean will lead to increased atmospheric moisture and a heightened risk of extreme weather events.

The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) has been tracking the situation closely, and its Director, Dr. Marcia Glaser, has emphasized the need for continued vigilance. "We're seeing a classic example of the complex interplay between climate variability and regional weather patterns," she noted in a recent interview. "The drought that has plagued Morocco for the past decade has been exacerbated by a combination of natural climate variability and human activities, such as deforestation and irrigation practices." The NDMC's data suggests that the country's water resources are now at a critical juncture, with many areas experiencing severe water shortages.

The Moroccan government has taken steps to address the drought, including implementing water-saving measures and investing in renewable energy sources. However, the impact of the upcoming super El Niño event will likely be significant, with many experts predicting that the country will see some of its worst flooding in decades. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a statement warning of the potential for severe weather events, and the African Development Bank has pledged support to help Morocco mitigate the impacts of the flooding.

The implications of this shift in climate patterns are far-reaching, particularly in the Data Sources domain. Companies that rely on Morocco's hydrological data, such as the French company, Meteo France, will need to reassess their forecasting models and update their systems to account for the changed climate conditions. Research communities, such as the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS), will also need to take into account the potential impacts of the super El Niño event on their models and predictions. The African Development Bank has also highlighted the potential for increased flooding to impact agricultural productivity, which could have significant consequences for the region's food security.

The flooding event is also likely to have significant impacts on the global markets, particularly in the insurance sector. Companies such as AXA and Allianz have significant exposure to weather-related risks in North Africa, and the potential for severe flooding could lead to increased claims and payouts. The insurance industry will need to take a close look at its exposure to weather-related risks and develop strategies to mitigate the impacts of the super El Niño event.

The situation in Morocco is part of a larger pattern of climate variability in the region. The North African region has long been prone to extreme weather events, including droughts and floods, due to its location in the path of the Sahara Desert. However, the warming of the Pacific Ocean and the resulting super El Niño event are expected to exacerbate these trends, leading to increased flooding and other extreme weather events. This is not an isolated event, but rather part of a larger pattern of climate change that is affecting regions around the world.