El Niño to be 'very strong' and last until February, UN climate agency warns

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Published: 2026-09-03T09:24:12.850Z • Permanent link

Breaking: El Niño to be 'very strong' and last until February, UN climate agency warns

El Niño's impact on global agriculture and food supplies is set to be particularly severe, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning of a 'very strong' event that is likely to persist until February. According to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the prolonged heatwave in the Pacific Ocean will lead to a 70% increase in global temperatures compared to the pre-El Niño baseline.

The WMO's warning is based on its analysis of satellite data, which shows a significant increase in sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, a region that is critical to the development of El Niño events. Specifically, temperatures in the Niño 4 region, which is located between 2°S and 2°S latitude and 120°W and 140°W longitude, have risen by over 1.5°C since the beginning of the year. This is significantly above the long-term average and is consistent with the WMO's prediction of a 'very strong' El Niño event.

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a 'strong' El Niño alert, which is its highest level of warning for the phenomenon. According to NOAA, the prolonged heatwave in the Pacific Ocean is likely to lead to a significant increase in global temperatures, with potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, and human health.

The implications of a prolonged El Niño event are far-reaching and will have significant impacts on various industries and research communities. For example, the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) has warned that the prolonged heatwave could lead to a significant decline in cattle prices, as drought conditions and heat stress could reduce the quality and quantity of beef available to consumers. Similarly, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a 'high' alert for the southern United States, where the prolonged heatwave could lead to severe drought conditions and heat-related illnesses.

Research communities are also taking notice of the potential impacts of El Niño on global climate patterns. For example, the University of California, Berkeley's Climate and Human Impacts Research Institute (CHIRI) has issued a statement warning that the prolonged heatwave could lead to a significant increase in global temperatures, with potential impacts on sea levels, ocean acidification, and extreme weather events.