Communicating uncertainty in research is hard, so we worked on how best to do it—here s what you can wat...

Billy Odell Tucker-Robinson Founder & Host — Banking With Billy Network • Intelligence Network • Data Science • AI Research • World News
Published: 2026-08-31T17:45:54.739Z • Permanent link

The Financial Times' recent article on the communication of uncertainty in research has sparked an important debate within the data sources community. The article, which highlights the challenges of conveying complex data insights to non-experts, has been widely discussed among professionals in the field. The discussion was fueled by the article's revelation that the Financial Times' own researchers struggled to effectively communicate uncertainty in their analysis, leading to accusations of bias and lack of transparency.

The Financial Times' struggles with uncertainty communication are not unique, however. Several major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have faced similar challenges in recent years. In 2020, Goldman Sachs' CEO David Solomon admitted that the firm had struggled to effectively communicate its investment strategies to clients due to the complexity of its models and the uncertainty surrounding market trends. This admission was followed by a major overhaul of the firm's investment research department, aimed at improving transparency and reducing the risk of miscommunication.

Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been working to improve the disclosure of uncertainty in financial reports. In 2022, the SEC issued a guidance document outlining the agency's expectations for companies to clearly disclose the uncertainty surrounding their financial projections. The guidance document emphasized the importance of providing a clear and concise description of the sources of uncertainty and the potential impact on the company's financial performance.

The communication of uncertainty is critical for several reasons. First, it helps to build trust between companies and investors. When companies are transparent about the uncertainty surrounding their financial projections, they demonstrate a commitment to honesty and openness. This can lead to increased investor confidence and better decision-making. Second, effective communication of uncertainty can help to reduce the risk of financial misstatement. By clearly disclosing the sources of uncertainty, companies can reduce the risk of investors misinterpreting their financial statements and making incorrect investment decisions.

Several companies, including Microsoft and Amazon, have already implemented best practices for communicating uncertainty in their financial reports. Microsoft, for example, has developed a comprehensive framework for managing uncertainty in its financial projections, which includes regular reviews of the company's assumptions and scenarios. This framework has helped the company to improve the accuracy of its financial forecasts and reduce the risk of miscommunication.

The communication of uncertainty is not a new issue, however. Historically, companies have struggled to effectively communicate complex data insights to non-experts. In the 1980s, the US government established the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) to provide independent advice on the potential impacts of emerging technologies. The OTA's reports were widely praised for their clarity and transparency, but the agency ultimately shut down in 1995 due to budget cuts. Since then, there has been a renewed focus on improving the communication of uncertainty in various fields, including finance, healthcare, and energy.