'Bolsonaro win could put EU

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Published: 2026-10-05T09:30:45.134Z • Permanent link

Jair Bolsonaro's presidential victory in Brazil has sent shockwaves throughout the global community, particularly in the European Union. According to Portuguese political analyst and former MEP João Albuquerque, a Bolsonaro win could push Brazil further from the EU. This outcome is in stark contrast to the more collaborative approach taken by his predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula's administration had made significant strides in strengthening ties with the EU on trade, climate, and democratic values. One notable example is the EU's support for Brazil's efforts to reduce deforestation in the Amazon rainforest. This cooperation was a direct result of Lula's administration's commitment to preserving the world's most biodiverse ecosystem.

Brazil's new president has already begun to distance himself from his predecessor's policies. During his campaign, Bolsonaro vowed to scale back Brazil's environmental protections and expand the country's agricultural sector. This move has sparked concerns among environmental groups and EU policymakers, who fear that Brazil's new government will abandon its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, Bolsonaro's rhetoric has been criticized for its anti-LGBTQ+ and anti-minority sentiments, which have raised eyebrows in the EU. The EU's values of equality and human rights are fundamental to its relationship with Brazil, and a shift towards more authoritarian policies could jeopardize this alliance.

Brazil's economy is also a key area of concern for the EU. Bolsonaro's administration has promised to reduce tariffs and regulations, which could lead to increased competition from EU-based companies. However, this move could also have negative consequences for Brazilian industries that rely on EU trade agreements. The EU is Brazil's largest trading partner, accounting for over 20% of Brazil's exports. A breakdown in trade relations could have far-reaching consequences for the Brazilian economy and the EU's own industrial base.

A Bolsonaro victory has significant implications for the EU's research community, particularly in the fields of science and technology. Brazil is home to a thriving scientific sector, with many institutions and researchers collaborating with EU-based counterparts. However, a shift towards more authoritarian policies could lead to increased censorship and restrictions on scientific freedom. This could have a chilling effect on Brazilian researchers and limit the flow of ideas and collaboration between the two regions. Furthermore, the EU's research funding programs, such as Horizon 2020, have been instrumental in promoting innovation and entrepreneurship in Brazil. A reduction in EU funding could have a devastating impact on Brazilian research institutions and the country's ability to compete in the global scientific community.

The EU's data protection regulations, such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), have also been influential in shaping Brazil's data protection landscape. However, a Bolsonaro victory could lead to a relaxation of these regulations, which could have far-reaching consequences for Brazilian companies and individuals. The EU's data protection standards are considered some of the most stringent in the world, and a shift towards more permissive policies could have a negative impact on the global data protection landscape.

The EU's relationship with Brazil is not a new development. The two regions have a long history of cooperation, dating back to the 1960s. However, this relationship has been subject to fluctuations over the years, influenced by factors such as economic trends, security concerns, and shifts in global power dynamics. The EU has long been a major player in promoting democratic values and human rights in Brazil, and this approach has been instrumental in shaping the country's development. However, the EU's approach has also been criticized for being overly paternalistic and lacking a nuanced understanding of Brazilian politics and culture.