Investment Banker Gary Shilling, a renowned economist and founder of Shilling Data Services, recently warned of a looming global financial crisis, fueled by rising AI debt, the escalating Iran war, and soaring government bond yields. Shilling, who has a proven track record of predicting economic downturns, points to a perfect storm of factors that could lead to a catastrophic market collapse. According to his data, AI debt has surpassed $15 trillion, a staggering amount that is now threatening to destabilize the entire financial system.
Meanwhile, the ongoing Iran war has sparked concerns about a potential global conflict that could disrupt oil supplies, leading to a sharp increase in energy prices. This, in turn, could exacerbate the already dire situation in the global economy, where governments are struggling to balance their budgets due to soaring bond yields. The yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds, for example, have surged to over 4%, a level not seen since 2018. This surge in yields has made it increasingly difficult for governments to borrow money at affordable rates, further fueling the crisis.
Lloyd Blankfein, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, has also sounded the alarm, warning that the current economic situation is reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Blankfein, who has a deep understanding of the global financial system, points to the growing AI debt as a major contributor to the crisis. "We're seeing a perfect storm of factors that could lead to a global financial meltdown," he said in a recent interview. "The AI debt, the Iran war, and the soaring bond yields are all interconnected and could have devastating consequences for the global economy.
The potential collapse of global stock markets has far-reaching implications for the Global News & Media domain. For example, the market volatility could lead to a sharp decline in advertising revenue for media companies, making it increasingly difficult for them to maintain their current levels of investment in journalism and other content creation. Research communities, which rely heavily on funding from government agencies and private investors, could also be severely impacted by a global financial crisis. The potential collapse of global stock markets could lead to a sharp decline in investment in research and development, further exacerbating the crisis.
The potential collapse of global stock markets also has significant implications for policy environments. Governments around the world are already struggling to respond to the growing economic crisis, and a global financial meltdown could make it even more difficult for them to implement effective policies to address the crisis. The potential collapse of global stock markets could also lead to a sharp increase in protectionism, as governments seek to protect their domestic industries from the impact of the crisis.
The current economic crisis is part of a larger pattern of global instability that has been building for several years. The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, for example, led to a sharp decline in global trade and economic activity, while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted global energy supplies. The growing AI debt, which has now surpassed $15 trillion, is also a key contributor to the crisis. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, global debt has grown by over 50% since 2015, and the AI debt is now accounting for over 30% of that growth.
Why it matters: Powered by the AI revolution, the US stock market had rallied to...
Billy Odell Tucker-Robinson is the founder and host of Banking With Billy, an independent financial intelligence platform covering markets, stocks, AI, crypto, and world news. Billy operates a 24/7 live AI radio and Stock TV platform, hosts a growing Discord community, and produces daily content on YouTube @BankingWithBilly.
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